Why value bets are important
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Contrary to what people think about bookmakers, they don’t really care about “fixed” matches, neither do they want to impact the final result for their own benefit in any way. The reason is simple. The can secure their profit by just making odds. Behind odds lies the so called “edge of the house” (those of you who are interested to learn more, the internet is full of valuable articles that explain exactly what it is and how the edge of the house applies to football betting).
This way, the player who bets and continues to do so without taking account of this small but crucial parameter, will eventually see his money dwindle. Before moving on, we should mention a necessary distinction the happens de facto to sports bettors.
There’s the majority of players who bet purely for fun. This doesn’t mean that they do not wish to win, but they won’t ever get into much detail on how the game is actually organized.
The second category of players are those who try many different ways to win in the long term. There’s only a sub-category among them. These are people who use systems and various other methods to sharpen their mind with something that is very close to math and statistics.
Regardless of what category each player belongs to, all three are well respected and welcome, provided of course that betting does not become a passion and that no money that would be normally needed for other obligations and activities is lost.
So, in this occasion we refer to the last two categories of players and at the same time we take for granted the fact that they are familiar with the terminology we will be using.
The key question here is whether there is a way to reverse the edge of the house in favor of the player. The answer seems to be rather easy but in reality it is not.
Let’s take one step back, let’s make a small setback…
Can the edge of the house be drastically reduced and thus the capital of the player be protected?
Yes, this is actually quite easy, as long as he remains loyal to a couple of simple things. First of all he needs to drastically reduce the number of games he bets. The less he plays the better, and in order to have a practical scale for that, let’s assume that during a match day with a heavy schedule (for example every Saturday we have about 300 games on the coupon), 5 matches are just fine.
Secondly, it is important that the game selection is made on a single bet, not doubles triples etc. that multiply the edge of the house and at the same time reduce the chance of “winnings-returns” to our capital.
Third of all, the player should avoid “strong” favorites, and the corresponding “usurious” odds as they are considered, although they are not. In other words, it’s the best way to make bookmakers get rich, from breaking 1.10 and 1.20 odds and so on, until approximately 2 …
But let’s return to the essence of our question.
In theory, yes, it is possible to reverse the edge of the house towards the player’s side, and thus it can be a winning “colleague” over time. Of course “over time” is a detail that raises a lot of discussion, because even a couple of profitable years cannot be considered a “professional” case. Theoretically, though, as we mentioned before, it is possible, and this is the magic of the game and one of its most alluring traps at the same time. Those who are of the opinion that this “trap” was set on its own, make a very big mistake.
Before we get into Value Bets as the main way to do so, let’s get two others “out of the way”, just by mentioning them. There is a “childish” and a “cunning” way.
The “childish” way is in fact to take 5-10 selections from whatever source we can find, and seek to bet on the largest odds we can find, if not from all bookmakers, at least from a list of 50 bookmakers. As ridiculous as this tactic may sound – combined with our abstention from “usurious” odds that we talked about above – it is something that may prove to be successful. Is there a catch? Of course, but this is something that will not be answered here, so attention to all of you who make false ideas.
The “cunning” way is the personal view-information. Sports betting is basically a game of view. Views are converted into probabilities, probabilities are turned into odds and the edge of the house is added in order to make profit. But eventually the initial views collide with each other. Therefore, if X possesses some personal information for a significant parameter of the match, that has not been shared publically, then theoretically he gains an advantage by forming a better view for the match, and therefore he bets where his interest is. Personal information is not necessarily “cunning”. For example, 2-3 football players of the home team may have spent a wild night out getting drunk and I happen to get this information from a trusted person of the place they’ve been. Is there a catch? Of course, as always! Be careful of “trusted” information… they can easily prove to be catastrophic!
As we’ve seen, sports betting is a game of view in contrast to roulette for example, where personal views and opinions are entirely lost within the mathematic accuracy that stands like a rock over the player’s head, that would simple not like just to try his luck and have some fun with his company, but generally and vaguely wants to… “beat the casino”.
In addition, as we mentioned before, sports betting can be a game of views, but this fact does not make the edge of the house, that is a disadvantage for players just disappear. We should also point out that it’s not just the edge of the house that players need to face. Unfortunately…
There are physiological, tactical and financial (money management) issues that can easily put players out of course, even when they are able to find the best available Value Bets! Nevertheless, this is also a topic to be analyzed in another article.
Therefore, a Value Bet is the search of value in odds. It’s just as simple and also as complicated as that.
But what really happens in reality? Simply there are times when bookmakers “offer” odds for an event that are higher than “real” odds. This way, if you bet on constantly on such selections, we will manage to turn our disadvantage into an advantage with time, and make a profit.
In order to reach such a logical conclusion, we have already made two transgressions in our thinking.
The first one is the word “real” (odds). There is no such thing! Real odds/probabilities do not exist. And if they exist for other “cunning” reasons in specific matches every season, then these matches are not even available for betting or are limited to very minimal betting limits.
The real probabilities can only be found AFTER the end of the match! And they are always 100%... Arsenal-Chelsea 0-0 final result. 100% “X”!
Everything BEFORE the game are just future reality approaches, in other words, a forecast/intuition (yes, even that!)/information/statistics. Statistical analysis, with motivation and the news of the teams, the absences, their relations, the status of the weather, the condition of the field etc.
Forecasts! Very good maybe… but we are not talking about real odds here! This is a forecast and therefore it is doomed simply to approach reality with a certain methodology, usually by doing data transformation.
The second transgression is that bookmakers “offer” wrong odds. They do… but this is not done by their good heart or because the necessarily have an approach that has flaws.
You should note that bookmakers are always at least ONE STEP AHEAD of any player, regardless of what he thinks of his betting skills. This is probably the most significant “lesson” from what we have written in the past or mention here today.
Sports betting easily vanquishes overweening players and the humbler we are in this “battle”, having in mind that there are numerous issues we have not considered, the better we can save our power with efficiency and raise our probability of success.
WHY bookmakers give “wrong” odds is another chapter. The reasons are basically technical and are combined with marketing (competition with others), but that’s not just it. What we should remember, that summarizes WHY, is that bookmakers do not often care about making a mistake.
Do you want to move this one step forward?
You will be amazed that even a mistake can end up in the bookmaker’s favor. But still is true, although this gets totally away from our analysis on sports betting that’s our concern right now.
Bookmakers therefore really do not care, but the good news for a disciplined player who not only has theoretical training but also a great experience in the ACTUAL BETTING MARKET start here, because HE NEITHER CARES HOW AND WHY THE “MISTAKE” WAS MADE.
He simply cares to always bet on that!
In order to form a complete view about the game, a parameter is simply not enough. Statistical analysis is not enough, having a good knowledge about the teams we will be betting on is not enough, neither knowing the latest news about a game (injuries, suspensions, special circumstances, history, motivations, club relations etc).
Each parameter separately is simply not enough. All parameters combined on the other hand give the general image we should have before starting to compare our approximate odds with those offered (without ever forget what was mentioned above… conceit leads us into wrong decisions quickly and also towards disappointment).
Therefore, if after all this study we estimate that nevertheless the away win of Leicester City over Crystal Palace has a 50% chance to happen, and home win is offered at 2.40 (100/2.40=41%) it’s easily understood that we have a Value Bet here.
We believe that we should no further explain that if Leicester City does not eventually win in that particular match, this doesn’t mean that our 50% chance was a mistake.
50% means 50%. Not 99, nor 100..
In order for our tactic to prove wrong, we need to bet on a significant number of value bets (let’s say... 150 in this case) and if less than half of our selections lose, we should start to rethink of our strategy and try to improve the way we search for value in bets.
In other words… there we go again from the beginning! Did anyone who is not into betting say that it’s an easy game to play? He should better think again!
Here at betvirus.com we "keep" one parameter of value bets, statistics, through powerful and objective tools that are offered to players under a very low cost subscription. This is not enough, statistics by themselves are not enough, we mention this once more here so that it is actually understood by everybody. The player who is interested can use betvirus to move along that path, and build the foundations for the further study he is prepared to make.
A lot of websites and software is available over the internet that claim to offer “fair odds” for football matches, but without mentioning their methodology and other useful information, with extremely questionable efficiency.
We highly recommend that you read betvirus’ help articles in order to understand why we think that through our powerful tools, a sports bettor can find the best weapon for his fight against value bets. Spend some time to read and understand a couple of important things, it’s actually not that hard.
Of course this is the tedious part… but what follows will be like pure magic, because you will then be able to analyze things well and… know the methodology. How important is that second part? Priceless, and only our older subscribers are able to understand what we really mean.
Below you can find a large number of help articles on various subjects regarding betvirus and especially about BVTOOL, the fair odds calculation “engine” that besides everything else, it’s also self-learning, since the material used as “fuel” are matches that are added on a daily basis in betvirus’ database!
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