Below you can find the most common way to estimate a value bet with percentage of chances, with the following method:
Probability for outcome = 1 / decimal odds.
If we use one football match for example with home win odd at 2.00, the probability is of 2.00 is 1/2.00 = 0.50 or 0.50*100 = 50,00% (for home win).
Our calculated chances percentage should always be higher than the probabilities of the oddst for a value be. The greater the difference, the more rewarding the value bet will be.
A bettor who targets on value betting is in fact challenging the bookmaker’s predictions about the provided odds.
Wherever the punter thinks there’s a mistake on these bookies predictions on odds, he practically finds a value bet.
This may look like an uneven challenge, as the bookmaker’s experience, statistical knowledge and powerful computer software tools can not be easily challenged, however the punter has the benefit of reducing his bet choices. Most bookmakers are required to provide tens of thousands of odds sets each day. A bettor needs only to attention on a couple of matches.
The most complicated thing about estimate a Value Bet in a specific set of odds is that there’s no specific guideline of doing so! Value betting is really a bet where the actual chance of a win is more than the evaluation the sportsbook made.
Needless to say there are theories based on statistical research, mathematical formulas and other sets of facts, but looking for the real value is a highly complex process. The better you realize value betting, the more successful your football picks will be.